Idaho Housing Market Update
Hey, Dave Edwards, Treasure Valley Dave here in Nampa, Idaho. Today, we’re doing our market update. We got all the numbers this morning for September, and I have deferred to our superior expert on the whole market thing here.
This is Mareen Alstede, a valued Treasure Valley Dave team member. She’s someone that you’ll get to talk with as soon as you give us a call about relocating to Idaho.
Dave Edwards: So you’ve cranked out some numbers and compiled reports about Ada County and Canyon County. Two counties make up part of the Treasure Valley. What’s your overall feel? Let’s talk about Ada County first.
Ada County Idaho Housing Prices
Mareen Alstede: All right, Idaho is on sale.
Dave Edwards: Why would you say that? What are the numbers saying?
Mareen Alstede: The numbers for Ada County show us that in the last months, we had another price reduction on average home prices, so that’s excellent news.
Dave Edwards: What are the numbers on top? These are house prices for the last year, month over month.
Mareen Alstede: The average home price in Ada County is currently at $540,000. Last time, it was at $565,000.
Dave Edwards: It’s coming down. It’s wonderful.
Mareen Alstede: That’s what everybody has been waiting for. It’s excellent news.
Dave Edwards: I’m looking at this chart on the side, and it has all these little spikes that stick up way above everybody else. What does that mean?
Mareen Alstede: That is what everybody is talking about. It means that the inventory is going up. We had a big spike from rock bottom at the end of the year (493 homes on the market) now we are back where we should be in the 2,500 range. So it’s keeping steady.
What does that mean? You have options. There are houses out there to take a look at.
Dave Edwards: So if there’s a lot of inventory, and you just showed us that prices are coming down, those things work together. Is that right?
Mareen Alstede: They work fantastically together.
Dave Edwards: I also wonder about the tiny numbers in the chart that go straight across.
Mareen Alstede: Straight across is a red line showing the pending deals. It means that the house came on the market. A home is on the market for about 37 to 40 days. So when they’re pending, they will bump the inventory list.
Another line shows a decline in the number of homes sold.
Dave Edwards: Okay. But that’s been steady for the last three, four, or five months, so there’s still a constant demand.
Mareen Alstede: I would say so, yes. It is not as wild as it was but still steady.
Dave Edwards: To me, the steady demand means no housing market crash, even though the inventory is higher. Is that how you read that?
Mareen Alstede: Yeah, I wouldn’t call that a crash. It is an excellent opportunity to start buying a house.
Dave Edwards: So, what other graphs do you have?
Mareen Alstede: The interest rate (at the time of writing) is 6.1%. That had spiked quite a bit from where the market had meager inventory and very high demand when we were at the lowest percentage rate.
Dave Edwards: I know your graph goes back to the first part of 2006 — before the crash last time. Just look at how high the interest rates were back then.
Mareen Alstede: Yes, the highest ones were in 2007.
Dave Edwards: Right. The market was on fire in 2006, and the interest rates were higher than they are right now. So it’s all relative.
Mareen Alstede: It is.
Dave Edwards: Even though it’s high now, it used to be much lower in recent memory.
Mareen Alstede: Yeah. And it took us a bit of time to get used to it. It was very low, and then it spiked up quickly. It usually tends to go in a slower motion.
Dave Edwards: And the last graph you have done for this update… Is that an annual cycle?
Mareen Alstede: Yes, this is our seasonal cycle. All the little bumps in the graph show the number of houses sold.
The other line shows the number of days on the market, and the homes typically stay till the end of the year. You have to be slightly patient. You can sell, but it takes a little bit longer.
Dave Edwards: Right. So that’s Ada County. What about Canyon County?
Canyon County, Idaho Housing Prices
Mareen Alstede: All right, we also see in Canyon County a low decline. Our peak was April 2022, with an average home price of $476,000. We’re now at $427,000.
Dave Edwards: The bars in the graph all look the same, even though the numbers differ. We have pretty steady numbers sold, and the inventory is higher. So what really excites me is that you can get a house for $365,000. That’s the median price in that part of Nampa.
Mareen Alstede: That’s not bad at all. We must watch out for Canyon County since the inventory is declining again. How far will this balance out if sellers still hold back on selling? New construction is available, but we could see another shortage in existing homes.
Dave Edwards: Let’s say I have an existing home and was going to put it on the market. If I have a 2% interest rate and move somewhere else, I would get a 7% interest rate. Would that make me want to stay at my current house?
Mareen Alstede: It would.
Dave Edwards: A lot of the inventory we see are brand-new homes.
Mareen Alstede: Yeah. And I see brand-new homes under $400,000. That is fantastic. You don’t have to worry about AC or the roof.
Dave Edwards: Wow. So if you buy a brand-new house, the roof and the HVAC are brand new.
Mareen Alstede: Yep, everything is brand new.
Dave Edwards: Wow. At these prices, if I think that Idaho is not a dream anymore because of the crash, you just told me that you don’t see an impact coming. You see some very steady things going on. You know a lot of inventory, especially with new builders. We also throw in the quality of life for free. So there are a lot of positives.
The only negative would be the interest rate.
Mareen Alstede: Yeah, but there’s plenty more positive. And new construction has incredible incentives right now.
Dave Edwards: Really? Like what?
Mareen Alstede: We can ask for discounts.
Dave Edwards: To the tune of several thousand?
Mareen Alstede: You can even have your lawn put in if you like to or get help with closing costs.
Dave Edwards: I know all these have been in the media lately. What stories have you been reading, and what’s your take on them?
Mareen Alstede: We’ve been reading that we had a 10% decline in home prices. It’s something everybody was waiting for, and it was needed. Also, let’s remember that it’s seasonal.
Dave Edwards: So you’re not saying that the crash is coming? What we are actually seeing is a correction in the market.
Mareen Alstede: Yes, we’re starting to see that Idaho is still a great place.
Dave Edwards: And it’s on sale?
Mareen Alstede: Yes, it’s on sale!
Treasure Valley Dave here, and as always, we’re looking forward to helping you get home.